Pattern-machine test notes and run logs (Word Reimagined studio, predictive-history repository, private)

The studio’s own record of the pattern machine behind THE COUNTED CROWD. It is self-attested and not public, which is why it is graded C. It carries:

• The machine’s chain: sixteen instances of “the crowd vs. the institution” from the On Repeat dataset (555 dated instances, nine patterns), with “zero Black-led contention” and “no instance between 1935 and 2011.”
• The machine’s tests: against Turchin’s high spans, 5 of 11 instances in window (5.8 expected, p=0.79); against the strike series, n=5, which the notes call “underpowered; a null here is weak evidence on its own.”
• Their reading of the hole: it “says the chain tracks market- and consumer-adjacent contention specifically,” and “The chain samples people with property enough to defend.”
• The missing chain: fifteen instances, Stono (1739) to 2020, Birmingham and the March on Washington counted as one; pre-registered before the run; against Turchin’s high spans, 7 of 13 in window (6.9 expected, p=0.58); against the strike series, n=7, five of seven in the top quartile of strike activity (p=0.23), elevated but not significant.
• The World Test: six culture-columns (America, UK, France, Japan, China, Africa); the crowd pattern “holds” in all six.