WORD REIMAGINED The wire · 37 filed · live

Word of the Week · Issue 006 · Week of 17 August 2026

PREDICTIVE

What it claims
A neutral measure of risk. It predicts claims accurately within every group as well as across them, and accurate prediction is what fair pricing is.
What it does
Congress ordered the government to find out what credit scoring does to Black drivers. It found out, printed the number, and printed that it could not say why the score works.
The receipt
The government measured the risk the score assigns Black drivers, and printed that it could not say why scores work.
A close view of "Man Controlling Trade," the limestone sculpture by Michael Lantz outside the Federal Trade Commission's Apex Building: a straining man gripping the head of a rearing horse.
"Man Controlling Trade," Michael Lantz, 1942, Federal Trade Commission headquarters, Washington, D.C. Photo: David (Flickr), public domain.

Congress ordered a study in 2003. Two of its questions: what does credit scoring do to Black drivers, and could the same result be had with less harm. The Federal Trade Commission answered both, in 2007, in public.

Turn the scoring on and average predicted risk for African Americans rises ten percent. For white drivers it falls. More than half of all African Americans hold scores in the lowest quarter. The Commission printed one more sentence, third in its own conclusion: “It has not been clearly established why scores are predictive of risk.”

The number correlates, and the report could not say why. You still cannot legally drive in most of this country without insurance, and where states allow it, its price is set, in part, by that number.

Docket

Federal Trade Commission, 'Credit-Based Insurance Scores: Impacts on Consumers of Automobile Insurance,' Report to Congress, July 2007, 242 pp. Mandated by Section 215 of the FACT Act of 2003. Contains the measured racial effect, the proxy analysis, the race-neutral model results, and the sentence stating that why scores predict risk has not been clearly established.

Read the file PREDICTIVE WR-FCT-019
On the wire